2026 Ontario Honda Dealers Indy at Markham

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Palou Takes Historic Points Cushion to an Unknown Markham Street Course

Nobody has turned a competitive lap on the Streets of Markham, and that is precisely what makes the 14th round of the 2026 NTT IndyCar Series season so difficult to forecast.

The Ontario Honda Dealers Indy at Markham brings the series to a 12-turn, 2.19-mile temporary street course laid out in the Toronto suburb, with Sunday's race scheduled for 90 laps and 197.1 miles. It is the first IndyCar event staged on Markham's streets and the 40th race the series and its predecessors have contested in the Greater Toronto Area, a region that has produced some of the most combative racing on the calendar since Bobby Rahal won the inaugural event in 1986.

What it has not produced, until now, is a blank page. Every driver in the 25-car field arrives with the same reference material: a track map, a simulator model and a set of assumptions waiting to be corrected.

"It seems tricky, that's for sure," said Kyffin Simpson, driver of the No. 8 Sunoco LP Chip Ganassi Racing Honda. "It looks like a very technical track, which isn't usually my kind of track so much. I love all sorts of different challenges and tracks. I feel like once we get there in person it's probably going to be a lot cooler than looking at a track map."

Simpson, who logged time on the Honda simulator in Brownsburg, Indiana, before the trip north, expects elevation change to be the layout's defining feature — a rarity among the series' street venues.

"I'm excited to see kind of the elevation change that it seems like it has," he said. "That seems like a cool aspect for a street course that we don't really have anywhere else. It's going to be interesting to see what the passing opportunities are like."

He also offered the most practical assessment of what a simulator actually buys a driver before a debut weekend.

"The sim just really helps you to turn left so you don't get lost on the streets," Simpson said. "It's helpful."

A track that rewards nobody's homework is the kind of variable that scrambles a championship fight, and Alex Palou is better insulated against it than almost any leader before him. The driver of the No. 10 DHL Chip Ganassi Racing Honda leads the standings by 110 points over Kyle Kirkwood, the second-largest advantage any leader has carried into the final five races since the series unified in 2008, trailing only Palou's own 129-point cushion at the same stage a year ago. The average lead with five races remaining over that span is 48.8 points.

History strongly favors the man in front. In the 18 seasons since unification, the driver leading with five races to go has gone on to win the title 11 times, including each of Palou's four championships. This is the fifth time Palou himself has held the lead at this point, and the previous four all ended with a trophy. He has led the standings after 10 of the 13 races this season, taking control at the Acura Grand Prix of Long Beach in April.

The counterexamples are instructive, though. Ryan Briscoe led by eight points in 2009 and lost to Dario Franchitti. Juan Pablo Montoya led by 46 in 2015 and lost to Scott Dixon by 49. Helio Castroneves led in both 2013 and 2014 and watched Dixon and Will Power collect the titles.

Twelve drivers remain mathematically alive: Palou, Kirkwood, David Malukas, Christian Lundgaard, Pato O'Ward, Felix Rosenqvist, Josef Newgarden, Scott McLaughlin, Marcus Ericsson, Rinus VeeKay, Power and Dixon. Anyone who leaves Markham more than 216 points behind Palou is out.

There is also a pattern worth noting for anyone treating this as a routine stop. Since 2008, the eventual champion has won the 14th race of the season six times, most recently Palou at Laguna Seca last year. And from 2009-2019, the driver who won at Toronto went on to take the championship in six different seasons.

Kirkwood, in the No. 27 Sam's Club Andretti Global Honda, has the clearest mathematical path but needs the season's arithmetic to change quickly. His victory on the Streets of Arlington remains his lone win of 2026 in a year that has produced six different winners across 13 races — Palou with six, Newgarden and Lundgaard with two apiece and Kirkwood, Rosenqvist and O'Ward with one each.

Toronto-area form does not transfer to a new circuit, but the drivers who have thrived in the region are worth watching regardless. Dixon, in the No. 9 PNC Bank Chip Ganassi Racing Honda, is the winningest active driver in the GTA with four victories, sweeping the 2013 doubleheader and adding wins in 2018 and 2022. Power, in the No. 26 TWG AI Andretti Global Honda, has three (2007, 2010 and 2016), Newgarden two in the No. 2 PPG Team Penske Chevrolet (2015 and 2017), while Lundgaard won in 2023 and O'Ward is the defending winner from last year's race at Exhibition Place. Michael Andretti holds the event record with seven wins.

Chip Ganassi Racing has won eight times in Toronto, Team Penske five, and Penske owns 10 pole positions at the circuit. Since 1986, the polesitter has converted nine times.

Three drivers will make their first starts in the region: Caio Collet in the No. 4 Combitrans Amazonia AJ Foyt Racing Chevrolet, Dennis Hauger in the No. 19 Ault Block Chain Dale Coyne Racing Honda and Mick Schumacher in the No. 47 ENVE Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing Honda. For a rookie class, a track nobody has driven is as close to a level start as this series offers.

"When you go to a track that no one knows, it's more about who can learn it the fastest," Simpson said. "That is a skill that you develop over the years. That's something you can kind of learn. Sometimes experienced guys have that skill very well-developed."

Simpson has his own reason to like the return to Canada. He scored his first IndyCar podium in last year's Toronto race, and he enters the weekend off a Firestone Fast Six appearance at Portland with six top-10 finishes on the season, matching his career high.

"That's kind of been the goal all year, to get back on the podium, to get my first win," he said.

Milestones dot the entry list as well. Dixon will attempt his 370th consecutive start, extending his own series record, and a green flag Sunday moves his career total to 433. Graham Rahal, in the No. 15 United Rentals Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing Honda, goes for his 270th consecutive start, third-longest in series history, and Newgarden aims for his 233rd, sixth-longest.

Teams have five sets of primary and five sets of alternate Firestone tires for the weekend, with an additional primary set for entries fielding a rookie, and must run one set of primaries and one new set of alternates for at least two laps in the race. Push-to-pass is set at 150 seconds total with a 15-second maximum per activation, and hybrid deployment is unlimited with a ceiling of 360 kilojoules per lap.

Practice 1 runs at 3:05 p.m. ET Friday, with Practice 2 at 10:05 a.m. ET Saturday and qualifying for the NTT P1 Award at 2:25 p.m. ET Saturday. Both practices are 40 minutes for all cars followed by two 12-minute group sessions, and qualifying uses the standard three-round knockout format. Warmup is set for 8:40 a.m. ET Sunday.

Command to start engines comes at 12:15 p.m. ET Sunday with the green flag at 12:22 p.m. FOX carries the race in the United States with TSN1, TSN4 and TSN+ handling Canadian coverage, and INDYCAR Radio powered by OnlyBulls goes on air at 11:30 a.m. ET.